US President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have claimed the US has a "virtually unlimited" supply of weapons, asserting that Iran has "no hope" of outlasting Washington. However, during 'Operation Epic Fury', the US carried out thousands of strikes across Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Trump has said the conflict could last four to five weeks, but that the US has the "capability to go far longer than that".
Yet, experts raise concerns about high-grade weapon stockpiles, particularly Patriot defense missiles. Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center, emphasized the importance of Trump's distinction on weapon grades: "It's these highest-grade, long-range missiles and interceptors where there are the most concerns". Mark Cancian, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, estimated that about 200-300 Patriot missiles have already been used, with stocks being depleted rapidly.
The cost issue is also significant: Iran's Shahed 136 drones cost $20,000-$50,000 each, while US fighter jets armed with AIM-9 missiles cost $450,000 per shot plus $40,000 per hour to operate. Grieco called this "not efficient" and argued the US should learn from Ukraine's cheaper methods, such as interceptor drones costing less than Shaheds.
Accelerating production is challenging: Lockheed Martin has announced plans to scale up Patriot PAC-3 interceptor production from 600 to 2,000 per year, but this is not expected until 2030. Grieco dismissed these deals as "a non-announcement", noting they were publicized earlier, and highlighted bottlenecks that hinder rapid production increases even with increased funding.
Future risks: Grieco believes the US is unlikely to run out of weapons in the Iran war, but "we're going to be left with these bare stockpiles... and that's going to limit our choices in the years to come in terms of the Indo-Pacific and Europe or even the Middle East". Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already warned of potential reductions in air defense supplies. Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken also cautioned that a sustained operation in Iran could leave the US vulnerable to threats from Russia and China.
Iran's resilience: Grieco suggested the US may have underestimated Iran: "If the goal is regime change... air power alone is not going to bring about the collapse of the regime". She argued that Iran's previous restraint in responding to strikes was misinterpreted as weakness, leading to deterrence failures. Cancian agreed: "We've hit them quite hard and they have not sued for peace".
Source: www.dw.com