The Turkish government is watching with growing alarm as the war between neighboring Iran and the US-Israel alliance escalates, fearing it could destabilize the entire region. Ankara is concerned the conflict might spiral into a wider conflagration, with severe humanitarian, economic, and political consequences for Turkey, including impacts on inflation, energy supply chains, and tourism.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in an interview with Al Jazeera, stated that "Iran is ready to negotiate on the nuclear file again," advising "American friends to close files one by one with the Iranians." However, Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, noted that Turkey's diplomatic overtures have so far "fallen on deaf ears," with none of the warring parties currently considering serious negotiations.
The potential expansion of the conflict raises specific security concerns along the 530-kilometer border with Iran, home to a significant Kurdish minority. Ankara is dismayed by media speculation that the US regime might arm Iranian Kurdish groups for ground operations, a move that could undermine Turkey's peace process with the PKK and shift regional power dynamics.
In recent days, two ballistic missiles launched from Iran entered Turkish airspace and were intercepted by NATO defenses. In response, Turkey's defense ministry announced the deployment of a Patriot missile defense system near the Kurecik NATO radar base. Iranian officials have reportedly given assurances that they respect Turkey's sovereignty and did not target the country.
Turkey also fears a repeat of the 2015 large-scale refugee crisis. While displacement camps are reportedly planned on the Iranian side of the border, neither officials nor experts currently expect a dramatic surge in refugee numbers. Any major outflow could include not only Iranians but also up to 2 million Afghans currently in Iran.
Comments by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who purportedly praised Turkey's "preparedness efforts" regarding migration, have been interpreted in Ankara as a signal that the EU regime intends to once again use Turkey as a buffer zone to absorb refugees before they reach Europe.
Source: www.dw.com