The massive blackout of 2022, which left tens of millions of people in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan without electricity, has spurred renewed discussion on the need for closer energy integration among Central Asian states.
According to Maqsudjon Safarov, Senior Energy Specialist at the World Bank, the outage served as a 'wake-up call' for the region, highlighting the limitations of current fragmented cooperation.
The urgency of the issue is compounded by rapidly growing electricity demand. World Bank estimates suggest that by 2050, electricity consumption in Central Asia could nearly triple — a challenge that individual countries cannot meet independently.
The energy sector is also becoming a central focus of the region's climate agenda. Safarov noted that in Uzbekistan, over 75% of greenhouse gas emissions are linked to energy production and consumption.
The expert argued that intra-regional electricity trade could not only enhance energy security but also accelerate the transition to cleaner energy sources. This is facilitated by the complementary nature of the countries' energy resources: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have significant hydropower potential (Kambarata HPP-1 and Rogun HPP projects), Kazakhstan has large wind resources, Turkmenistan has gas resources, and Uzbekistan has solar energy potential.
Regional integration is also crucial for developing renewable energy, as solar and wind generation are intermittent and depend on weather and time of day.
Currently, intra-regional electricity trade remains low, covering only about 3% of demand, according to the World Bank. Existing cross-border transmission lines are used at less than half their capacity. For comparison, after the creation of a single energy market in Europe, the utilization rate of interconnections reached 85-90%.
Safarov pointed out that one of the main problems is the lack of a full-fledged regional market. Currently, countries mostly negotiate bilaterally and on an ad hoc basis, especially during winter. Except for Turkmenistan, no country can be considered fully energy independent.
Creating a single regional market would make electricity trade more transparent and predictable, with prices set by market mechanisms based on supply and demand, rather than through situational bilateral agreements. The World Bank notes that this would also increase the sector's attractiveness to private investors, who in developed countries actively invest in renewables and participate in electricity trading.
Another serious obstacle is outdated infrastructure. Safarov explained that after the collapse of the USSR, countries modernized their internal networks, but cross-border transmission lines remained at the level of the 1970s-80s.
Weak coordination between countries is another issue. The International Coordination Dispatch Center 'Energy' in Tashkent mainly handles technical management of electricity flows, while joint planning and common market development remain unresolved.
According to the expert, the key condition for integration is political coordination among regional states. The World Bank notes that political will in recent years has been a factor in restarting discussions on a common energy market. Safarov believes the region should rely on the comparative advantages of countries rather than each trying to cover future demand independently.
'For the last 25 years, no one has looked at this issue. Now energy ministers have started meeting several times a year to discuss regional problems,' he said.
In January 2026, the World Bank's Board of Executive Directors approved the REMIT program — 'Regional Electricity Market Development and Energy System Integration in Central Asia.' The program, running until 2035, aims to create a common electricity market, modernize cross-border networks, digitize energy systems, and integrate renewable energy.
The program is being implemented in stages. The first stage has already been approved by the World Bank. Under it, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as the 'Energy' Coordination and Dispatch Center of Central Asian countries, will receive grants and concessional loans totaling $143.2 million to implement relevant measures. Of this, $140 million will come from the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA) resources, and $3.2 million in grants from the Central Asia Water and Energy Program.
In Kazakhstan, the project focuses on network modernization and wind energy integration; in Uzbekistan, on solar generation development and strengthening ties with neighbors; in Kyrgyzstan, on preparing infrastructure for Kambarata HPP-1; and in Tajikistan, on expanding networks and the export corridor for Rogun HPP.
Safarov said Turkmenistan will also join the initiative.
'This is the first regional project in Central Asia's history to unite all five countries,' he stated.
According to World Bank estimates, closer integration could bring up to $15 billion in economic benefits to Central Asia by 2050. A common market would allow countries to distribute generation more efficiently and reduce the need to build excess capacity within each country.
'Each country does not have to build many power plants to be fully self-sufficient. It is possible and necessary to rely on neighbors and optimize the system across the entire region,' Safarov explained.
The World Bank also expects electricity prices to decrease by up to 10%, energy security to improve, and greenhouse gas emissions to drop by 25%.
Aziz Abdukhakimov, Chairman of the National Committee on Ecology and Climate Change, noted that energy system integration could also positively impact air quality. During energy shortages, countries often resort to using more coal and fuel oil for power and heating. He said that establishing electricity flows between countries could reduce fossil fuel consumption and cut harmful emissions.
Amid worsening air quality, Central Asian countries are strengthening regional environmental cooperation. Earlier, the formation of an intergovernmental coalition on clean air was announced. Under REMIT, an additional 9 GW of renewable energy capacity is expected to be commissioned by 2035. Safarov said this is comparable to the scale of the region's largest hydropower projects — Rogun and Kambarata HPPs.
Safarov emphasized that REMIT is seen not as a standalone project but as a foundation for further energy integration in Central Asia. The program is intended to become a platform for launching new regional initiatives and attracting international financing.
The World Bank estimates that at least $5.5 billion will be needed to modernize and integrate Central Asia's energy systems by 2035. The current REMIT financing package is estimated at about $1 billion. After implementation, the World Bank expects electricity trade in Central Asia to at least double.
Source: www.gazeta.uz