In May 2026, Uzbekistan recorded a decline in inflation expectations among both the population and business representatives, according to a survey conducted by the Central Bank. Forecasts for the coming year have become more moderate: the public expects price growth of 10.1%, while businesses anticipate around 10%.

The survey involved over five thousand respondents, including 3,400 citizens and 1,800 business representatives. Pensioners expressed the highest concerns about inflation, with a forecast of 12.6%, while students expect price growth of only 9%.

The study also showed that residents with monthly incomes exceeding 4 million soums estimate future price growth higher compared to other income groups.

Among entrepreneurs, the highest expectations were recorded in the construction industry at 11.9%, while the lowest were in the catering sector at 8.5%.

Regional differences are also notable: in Tashkent, the population forecasts inflation at 12%, whereas in Namangan region expectations were only 8.7%. Among businesses, the highest forecasts were in Jizzakh region (11.9%) and the lowest in Andijan region (8.1%).

Respondents cited rising utility and energy prices as the main factors shaping inflation expectations.

Earlier, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan reported a decline in annual price growth from 9.8% to 7.8%, achieved by maintaining the key rate at a high level of 14%. Central Bank Chairman Timur Ishmetov stated in a report to the Senate that the final inflation target of 5% is planned to be reached by 2027 through tight monetary control.

Source: podrobno.uz