Economist Mirkomil Kholboyev commented on the potential impact of the Middle East war on Uzbekistan's economy. The conflict's duration will determine the scale of effects: short-term conflict will have limited impact, while long-term conflict could be more significant.

In 2025, Uzbekistan's exports to Iran were $157 million (0.5% of total exports), imports were $421 million (0.9% of total imports). Trade turnover with Israel is small: exports at $33 million, imports at $22 million. Even a complete halt in trade with these countries would have minimal effect on foreign trade.

Transit through Iranian ports is important, but Uzbekistan's share in the Central Asia-India corridor is 5.5%. If the war continues, direct trade and transit links with Iran could be damaged, potentially reducing exports and imports.

Trade with other regional countries accounts for 1.5% of total imports and 2.4% of total exports. A slowdown in trade due to the war could affect GDP growth by around 0.6%.

Rising oil prices (e.g., a 9% increase) could slow the global economy, negatively impacting key partners like China and affecting growth in Uzbekistan. However, high oil prices create favorable conditions for Russia and Kazakhstan, which may boost remittances and exports to Uzbekistan.

Disruptions in global supply chains could accelerate inflation.

Source: www.gazeta.uz