The Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthi movement, despite threatening last week to intervene in the war in Iran, has so far taken no practical action. Houthi foreign ministry spokesman Abdullah Sabri warned that “Yemen... has its finger on the trigger” and promised “appropriate measures” if the war is expanded or additional foreign forces are deployed. Movement leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi also stated in a video message his support for Iran, Lebanon, and Palestine and readiness at the military level.

However, unlike the Iran-aligned Lebanese Hezbollah group, the Houthi movement has not yet intervened in the current war in Iran. This contrasts with the Gaza war, in which they participated by attacking Israel and international shipping in the Red Sea. Analyst Luca Nevola of the US-based monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) told DW: “The Houthis are currently not just restrained, but virtually completely inactive.” In his view, the reason lies primarily in a “sober cost-benefit analysis” – what they have to lose is greater than what they can gain.

Philipp Dienstbier, head of the Gulf States Regional Program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Amman, Jordan, sees the situation as multi-layered. He suggests the Houthis may be deliberately holding back to significantly increase military pressure at a later date, for instance through renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea or energy infrastructure. Moreover, the regional situation has changed over the past two years: Saudi Arabia – one of the current targets of Iranian attacks – is now the most important external actor in Yemen. Houthi intervention in the current war could jeopardize efforts to reach a lasting political solution in Yemen itself.

Dienstbier also emphasizes the movement’s relatively high degree of independence from Iran: “The Houthis have a significant degree of autonomy.” Their decisions are not simply made by their main ally and sponsor in Tehran; rather, they pursue their own interests, including military ones such as expanding drone capabilities. This relative independence explains why they do not automatically get drawn into every conflict. ACLED analyst Nevola also points to the group’s current weakness: the Houthis are “weaker than they were in 2023,” partly due to US airstrikes, economic pressure, and targeted Israeli attacks against their leadership.

Additionally, negotiations with Saudi Arabia have resumed. Nevola notes that “entering the war would jeopardize this process.” Conversely, refraining from escalation could build trust and enable political concessions. Qatari broadcaster Al Jazeera also quoted expert Nevola on another aspect: “At the current stage, the Houthis’ main priority remains avoiding direct US and Israeli retaliation.” He said the group seems to fear Israeli intelligence and the possibility of leadership decapitation.

Nevertheless, the military threat persists. Nevola warns that the Houthis are considered highly unpredictable at times, so a later intervention in the Iran war cannot be ruled out, despite several conflicting interests. Philipp Dienstbier also views the Houthis as “militarily resilient”: despite massive attacks, they remain capable of deploying missiles and even shooting down drones. Key here is their asymmetric strength as a militia, which is “difficult to contain.” In his view, an expansion of current hostilities to the Red Sea – one of the world’s most important trade routes – would be particularly critical.

Nevola also sees the greatest escalation potential in the narrow passage: “Should the Houthis intervene, attacks on commercial shipping are most likely.” Such attacks would be comparatively inexpensive but would nevertheless have significant symbolic and economic consequences. A blockade could primarily affect Saudi Arabia, which handles a large portion of its oil exports via the Red Sea. According to expert Dienstbier, the consequences could extend far beyond the region: “They would place additional strain on the already tense energy markets and lend the conflict significantly heightened dynamics.”

Source: www.dw.com