For years, the worst-case climate scenario (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) warned of catastrophic warming of over 4°C by century's end. However, a scientific paper published last month indicates this scenario is now less probable. Researchers attribute the shift to faster-than-expected renewable energy rollout and government policies curbing emissions.

Climate scientist Detlef Van Vuuren, lead author of the paper, told Carbon Brief that the scenario was always a "low-probability, high-risk scenario" reflecting late-2000s trends. Political measures have since steered the world away from that path.

Despite this good news, scientists urge against complacency. Emissions are not falling fast enough, and the world could still warm by 3°C by 2100, intensifying deadly heatwaves, floods, storms, and droughts, affecting hundreds of millions.

US President Donald Trump and far-right parties like Germany's Alternative for Germany have seized on the revision to attack climate science. Niklas Höhne of the NewClimate Institute called it "a blatant diversionary tactic by climate deniers and the far right."

Meanwhile, the UN General Assembly approved a non-binding resolution reinforcing countries' obligations to combat climate change, based on an International Court of Justice advisory opinion. The US, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia opposed the measure.

Source: www.dw.com