San Francisco, California – California, a traditionally blue state on the US West Coast, faces an unprecedented scenario: Democrats may be locked out of the general election for governor. Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, and no Republican has held statewide office since 2011.
The state's nonpartisan “jungle” primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party, combined with a crowded field of 24 Democratic candidates, has created the possibility that no Democrat makes the final round. “We've never seen anything like this before,” said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at UC Berkeley.
Polls show two Republicans – former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco – near the top. A March poll gave Hilton 17% and Bianco 16%. California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks lamented that the system could leave “half of the registered voters in the state without a candidate of their choosing in the general election.”
The jungle primary was adopted in 2010 as a bipartisan initiative backed by moderate Republicans like Arnold Schwarzenegger. Proponents argue it reduces polarization and increases competition. A 2023 report found that uncontested primaries dropped from 80% to under 20% after the change.
However, the system can disadvantage a party with many candidates. Six leading Democrats have split the party's base, including former US Representative Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan. In the final days, former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire Tom Steyer have surged.
Top Democrats have largely stayed out of the race. Governor Gavin Newsom and former President Joe Biden have not endorsed anyone. Former Vice President Kamala Harris declined to run. Experts say the chaotic field may have deterred strong candidates.
California faces a multibillion-dollar budget deficit, high housing costs, and a homelessness crisis. Republicans blame Democratic leadership, while Democrats tout their crisis management. The economy and housing are the top voter issues, according to polls.
Despite strong anti-Trump sentiment, the jungle primary could allow a Republican to advance. But experts doubt Californians would elect a Trump-aligned candidate. “It's almost inconceivable,” said Thad Kousser of UC San Diego. The outcome may hinge on which candidate best addresses the affordability crisis.
Source: www.aljazeera.com