Six months ago, the United States and Israel struck targets across Tehran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders. It fulfilled a long-held ambition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a joint attack with the US on Iran, but Washington is now locked in a war from which it cannot extricate itself.
The US's stated war aims also appear not to have been achieved, with President Donald Trump's initial claim that Iran's nuclear capacity had been destroyed now proving false. Netanyahu might have hoped that the fall of the government in Tehran would be part of his election campaign, but it has not materialized.
In Iran, the consequences of six months of war have done little to reverse the struggling economy. The cost-of-living crisis was a mainstay of Trump's criticisms of the Biden administration during the 2024 US election, but petrol prices alone have risen by 50 percent since the war began on February 28. Trump's repeated empty claims that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent appear to be doing little to help his struggling Republican Party ahead of midterm elections in November.
Numerous surveys show Trump's approval rating is at a record low, with criticism of his foreign policy competing with disapproval of his domestic record. Shibley Telhami, a government and politics professor at the University of Maryland, told Al Jazeera that the economic cost of the war is becoming a key issue for many.
According to an Ipsos poll, fewer than one in three Americans support the conflict. Telhami noted that there is a perception, especially among Democrats and initially young Republicans, that Israel dragged the US into this war. Trump imposed new sanctions on Tehran last week, dubbing them 'Economic D-Day'.
American author and diplomat Aaron David Miller pointed out that despite the costly effects of the war and sanctions, the government in Tehran has survived. Highly enriched uranium is still in the country and could still be enriched. Iran has also weaponized geography by closing off the Strait. Their proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah, while reduced, still have capacity.
Miller believes no future administration is likely to consider such a military campaign again. Israeli security analyst Ahron Bregman of King's College London said Netanyahu is viewed as having failed in Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran. Many Israelis perceive the war in Iran as a major security error.
The US decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran without Israel's involvement in June gave Netanyahu's political opponents multiple reasons to attack him. Former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy said Netanyahu hoped the war would be an electoral game-changer, but it has not given him that momentum.
Iran's economy is suffering from the war and sanctions: by Iran's own reckoning, the war had cost the economy upwards of $145bn by April, with annual inflation hitting 66 percent. However, the economy remains resilient. Academic Shervin Malekzade said the pains remain manageable.
Iran's entire political and military system is rooted in 'the timeless task of preserving Iranian sovereignty and dignity against the world.' Despite domestic political challenges, none of the belligerents can concede defeat. Trump's failure to deliver a short and decisive victory against Iran, and the economic and political costs, will likely affect Republicans' performance in the upcoming midterms.
Source: www.aljazeera.com