The war in Ukraine has led to a more than threefold increase in imports of major arms by European states over the past five years compared to the previous five-year period, yet it may also be helping to transform Europe into a growing arms manufacturer and exporter, according to new research. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated in its annual Arms Transfers report released on Monday that European imports surged during 2021-2025, coinciding with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Almost half of those weapons – 48 percent – originated from the United States, indicating that Europe is failing to achieve a shared ambition of greater weapons autonomy. However, SIPRI researcher Katarina Djokic noted that 43 percent of the overall increase in European imports was due to direct arms transfers from the US to Ukraine, a figure that excludes purchases made by other European states on Ukraine's behalf, suggesting Ukraine's needs constituted an even larger proportion of Europe's import growth.

Simultaneously, the combined arms exports of the 27 European Union member states rose by 36 percent over the same period, outpacing growth in the US (27 percent) and China (11 percent). The EU accounted for 28 percent of global arms exports in the past five years, nearly four times Russia's export volume and five times China's. In contrast, Russia's share of arms exports collapsed by 64 percent, partly due to its own military needs and perceived technological shortcomings exposed in Ukraine.

Europe's reliance on the US is driven by several factors: the lack of production for certain weapon systems (e.g., multiple-launch rocket systems) in Europe, a preference for perceived superior technology such as F-35 jets or Patriot missile defenses, and a desire to strengthen security partnerships with the US, especially in Eastern Europe. However, General Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe, argued that the transatlantic relationship is weakening due to unpredictable US policies, including under the Trump administration, leading Europeans to seek reduced dependence.

The European Union is now insisting that Ukraine prioritize weapons purchases from within Europe, a move aimed at reinvesting funds into the EU's defense industry. Additionally, the EU has allocated 150 billion euros to the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, providing low-cost loans to member states for intra-EU arms procurement. While these shifts are not yet reflected in SIPRI's data, they signal a trend toward enhanced European arms production and export capabilities in the coming years, as investors become more willing to fund defense sectors amid ongoing global conflicts.

Source: www.aljazeera.com