Turkey, one of the world's most cherished vacation spots and the fourth most popular destination in 2024, has seen a significant downturn in tourist arrivals following the outbreak of war with Iran. Official data indicates that Turkey welcomed approximately 64 million tourists in 2025, generating revenues of around €56 billion, but its 2026 targets of 65 million visitors and €59 billion have been derailed by the conflict. The tourism sector, which had heavily invested in comfort and safety post-COVID-19, now faces uncertainty as geopolitical tensions escalate.

Industry representatives report a flurry of cancellations for hotel reservations and tours, particularly in Turkey's eastern and southeastern cities. Traditionally, Iranian tourists have flocked to Turkey for the Nowruz festival, but this year, border-area hotels are empty, and few Iranians are visiting. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), an average of 3.3 million people from Iran visited Turkey annually in recent years, ranking fifth after visitors from Russia, Germany, Britain, and Bulgaria.

Onur Tuncdemir, head of sales and marketing at Ayanis Tour, stated that travel from neighboring countries in the east and southeast has come to a complete standstill since the war began. He told DW that the war had an immediate impact on the local economy in border regions, with his company dealing almost exclusively with cancellations and refunds in recent weeks. Tuncdemir added that the tourism sector had already suffered massive losses due to anti-government protests in Iran in late 2025 and early 2026, but business has been at a complete halt since February 28, 2026, coinciding with the end of Ramadan and Nowruz, typically a peak tourist period.

Kaan Kavaloglu, chairman of the Union of Mediterranean Touristic Hoteliers and Operators (AKTOB), pointed out that there is no danger to holidaymakers in popular Turkish destinations like Istanbul, Bodrum, and Antalya, and significant cancellations have not occurred there yet. He noted palpable caution regarding bookings from Britain, but reservations from Russia and Germany have remained stable. International consulting firm Oxford Economics recently forecast that inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11-27% year-on-year in 2026 due to the conflict with Iran, warning of a potential domino effect as Gulf airports, accounting for 14% of global flights, are impacted.

Mehmet Isler, chairman of the Aegean Tourism Enterprises and Accommodation Association (ETIK), expressed confidence in the resilience of the Turkish travel industry, citing past crises such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. He confirmed massive cancellations from Iran and the Arab world but assumed tourist flows from crisis regions might shift to the safer Mediterranean, potentially benefiting Turkey. Isler told DW that the next four to six weeks will be decisive, with short-term losses being factored in.

So far, Iran has not attacked neighboring Turkey, a member of the NATO regime and an EU candidate country, though NATO air defenses have shot down three missiles fired toward Turkey. In Europe, as Easter holidays approach, travelers are questioning regional safety. On March 11, the German Foreign Office issued a new travel warning for Turkey, advising against non-essential trips to regions bordering Iran, Iraq, and Syria, reflecting broader concerns over instability in the area.

Source: www.dw.com