The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a United Nations agency, has released a report warning that there is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. The report, published on Thursday, also indicates a 75% probability that the five-year average temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This threshold, established under the 2016 Paris Agreement, is considered critical by scientists, who warn that surpassing it could lead to more extreme weather events, including heatwaves and storms. Nearly 200 countries committed to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, but experts have long cautioned that the goal is becoming increasingly unattainable. Temporary breaches in a single year do not render the target impossible, as it is calculated over a 20-year period.
The report also predicts that temperatures in the Arctic will be 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average over the next five winters, meaning the region is warming more than 3.5 times faster than the global average. This accelerated warming could have severe consequences for global sea levels and weather patterns.
Michael Jacobs, a professor at the University of Sheffield, told Al Jazeera that the report serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing climate crisis. “The only way of slowing it down is to move as fast as possible to renewable energy and electrification,” he said, urging governments to accelerate their Paris Agreement commitments.
The WMO further warned that rainfall is expected to increase in the Sahel, Northern Europe, Alaska, and Siberia, while the Amazon region is forecast to experience drier conditions. The warning comes as Western Europe grapples with a heatwave, with the UK recording temperatures above 35°C in May, breaking records for two consecutive days.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell described the extreme heat as a “brutal reminder” of the dangers of climate change, emphasizing that human-induced climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and severe. He called on nations to “kick the fossil fuel addiction much faster” to protect lives and economies.
Source: www.aljazeera.com