The small constituency of Makerfield in northwest England has become the epicentre of British politics as a by-election on Thursday will not only elect a new member of parliament but could also pave the way for a new prime minister.
The by-election was triggered last month when the previous MP, Josh Simons, stood down to allow Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat. If Burnham wins, he intends to challenge UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the ruling Labour Party.
Starmer is facing mounting pressure following dismal local election results last month and the resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns this week over the UK's defence budget.
Seeking to derail Burnham's hopes is far-right Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon, whose campaign has been dogged by controversy over alleged sexist and misogynistic social media posts but who remains within striking distance in the polls. Reform came second at the last election in Makerfield and is seen as a real threat to Labour, which has held the seat since 1983.
Despite winning the 2024 general election in a landslide, Labour's popularity has plummeted over the past two years as support for the far-right, anti-immigration Reform UK has soared. In local elections last month, Reform swept hundreds of council seats at Labour's expense. Labour lost nearly 1,500 local council seats while Reform surged from 100 to about 1,450 seats.
According to polling group Ipsos, Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister since it began voter surveys in the late 1970s. As internal tensions have grown, Burnham has emerged as the party membership's preferred alternative to Starmer. Recent polling suggests Starmer would defeat most challengers except Burnham.
As Mayor of Manchester, Burnham is not an MP and cannot currently stand for Labour leadership. Earlier this year, he was blocked from standing via another by-election, but the party's National Executive Committee has become increasingly unwilling to block him again.
Political commentator Aaron Bastani told Al Jazeera that Burnham's personal reputation "makes a difference" and that he represents Labour's best chance against Reform UK. "A lot of Reform voters actually like him," Bastani said. However, some voters still associate him with Labour as the party of government.
Polling suggests a tight race. The largest survey, by Opinium for Forward Democracy, indicates Burnham leads Kenyon by five percentage points among likely voters. However, Kenyon's share may be damaged by the 7% expected to go to Restore Britain, a breakaway far-right party. The Conservatives poll at just 2%.
Bastani expects Burnham to win but cautioned against ignoring Reform's rise. "If Reform were running a stronger candidate, this could look very different," he said. The result could have national implications, potentially triggering a leadership challenge to Starmer.
Source: www.aljazeera.com