The ongoing confrontation between the United States and Iran could have serious consequences for Central Asia, not only economically but also in terms of security and geopolitical balance. Logistic corridors, the strategic role of Turkic states in the region, a potential nuclear arms race, and questions of internal stability in Iran directly affect the interests of Uzbekistan and the entire region.

In the Kun.uz program “Geopolitics,” analysts discussed the likelihood of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and the impact of such a scenario on Central Asia. Kamoliddin Rabbimov stated that if Iran’s political system collapses, it could lead to a further strengthening of Israel’s geopolitical positions in the region and plunge the country into a long-term period of instability. Such a process could last at least 15–20 years and, under some scenarios, even create a risk of state disintegration.

Rabbimov emphasized that in such a situation, the main direction of geopolitical attention in the region could shift. The strategic focus of Israel and the US would likely turn to Turkey, which is one of the largest and leading Turkic states and a key partner for Central Asia. Therefore, any changes in the geopolitical balance in the Middle East would influence the political and economic environment across the region, potentially affecting Central Asian states.

Bekto‘sh Berdiyev pointed out that Uzbekistan has been striving in recent years to access new transport corridors through southern directions, particularly via Iran after Afghanistan to its seaports and Pakistan. However, the Pakistani route has become significantly complicated due to tensions between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, making the Iranian route crucial. Unfortunately, the current war situation could severely hinder these opportunities. If Iran destabilizes territorially or faces a risk of disintegration, logistic issues would worsen, and the weakening of state institutions could increase the likelihood of radical groups gaining strength, posing security threats to Central Asia.

Shavkat Ikromov noted that regardless of Iran’s political system, it is important for a healthy and stable political system to exist there. A strong and stable Iran holds great significance for Central Asia, primarily from a security perspective, and also creates economic opportunities. He argued that even if official Tehran acquires nuclear weapons, it would not pose a direct threat to Central Asia, given the presence of nuclear-armed states like Pakistan in proximity to the region.

Shukhrat Rasul warned that if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it could trigger a process akin to opening “Pandora’s box” in the region. The probability of other regional powers, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, seeking to activate their nuclear programs would increase, potentially leading to a domino effect and intensifying a global nuclear arms race. From this perspective, Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons presents certain dangers for Central Asia, especially if political ambitions are combined with historical and cultural ties.

Source: kun.uz