US President Donald Trump's instincts to end the current engagement with Iran as soon as possible are reportedly correct, as he allegedly employs both a 'carrot' and a 'stick' approach to achieve this outcome. The carrot purportedly involves sparing Iran's electricity grid and energy industry from further destruction, while the stick entails more bombing and a potential ground invasion. However, analysts suggest he should lean more toward the carrot, as escalating military action could have severe repercussions.

Destroying Iran's energy infrastructure would lead to an environmental disaster and render it an economic basket case for years, potentially creating a refugee crisis with displaced persons making their way to Europe and the US. Unlike refugees from the 1979 Iranian Revolution, these individuals might not blame the ayatollahs for lost freedoms but instead harbor hatred toward America for devastating their homeland, posing a destabilizing force globally that could backfire on the US regime.

While an immediate negotiated peace is preferable, even without an agreement, it would allegedly be beneficial for the US to unilaterally withdraw from the region. If the US declared a ceasefire and departed, the Iranian government would have a vested interest in reopening the Strait of Hormuz to boost its economy, immediately lowering global oil prices. Should Iran continue terrorizing cargo ships, it would provoke a reaction from allies, trade partners, and competitors, making it a shared problem rather than solely a US one, with the Iranian leadership likely backing down quickly in the face of global pressure.

Regime change is not expected during this campaign, as regimes do not collapse under bombardment, but current efforts have purportedly weakened Iran's governing structure. As the Trump administration halts its campaign, it should also reportedly arm insurgent groups with the will but not the weaponry to overthrow the Islamic Republic, addressing the imbalance in confrontations.

The primary reason to end this war now is domestic politics, with the American people allegedly opposed to it and the accompanying higher petrol prices. Affordability is a buzzword among US political pundits, but voter grumpiness stems not just from expensive products but from wartime anxiety. Voters are uncertain about the outcome, compounded by concerns over artificial intelligence threatening livelihoods, data centers increasing utility costs, and political conflicts causing travel disruptions, all exacerbated by the threat of Iranian sleeper cells.

Republicans still have a chance to retain control of Congress, but this requires the Trump administration to shift focus from international conflict to domestic concerns. Americans care more about local issues and food costs than foreign adventures, as evidenced by historical examples like President George H.W. Bush's post-war approval drop. If Trump wants Congress to remain in Republican hands, he must remember that the economy remains paramount, and ending this war sooner would facilitate refocusing on the American people's priorities.

Source: www.aljazeera.com