In a scenario few could have predicted, voters in the northern English market town of Ashton-in-Makerfield, near Manchester, could determine the United Kingdom's future political leadership. The surprise resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons in late February left the supposedly safe seat open, paving the way for the popular mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, to step in.

If Burnham wins the crucial by-election set for June 18, he could ultimately topple embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Standing in his way are voters, many of whom Burnham has yet to convince of his credentials, and the right-wing insurgent Reform UK party, which has promised to "throw everything" at the election to block Burnham's path to Parliament.

Local resident Peter Thompson, 78, told Al Jazeera he plans to vote for Reform, accusing the "people in power" of complacency. "Just look around now at what the state of the country's in. It needs a change," he said. However, 61-year-old Tracy Walker supports Burnham, saying, "I want Andy Burnham. He's from the north. I think we should give him a go."

Political scientists find the constituency difficult to categorize. Makerfield has been a safe Labour seat since 1983, but the party lost all eight local council seats to Reform in May's local elections. Polls suggest neither Burnham nor Reform candidate Robert Kenyon have a clear majority, with the far-right Restore Party potentially splitting the right-wing vote after receiving an endorsement from Elon Musk.

Polling guru John Curtice noted that Burnham is very popular among 2024 voters, and his name on the ballot could make a difference of around 9 percent, which might be enough to win Ashton. However, he cautioned that the election is still some way off.

For 84-year-old Edna Conliff, Burnham's local roots matter most. "He's local, very local," she said, pointing to where Burnham's house lies on the outskirts of the constituency. "And he's done such a lot for Manchester." She believes the town is essentially voting for the next UK prime minister, adding, "It might help us. You never know, do you?"

Source: www.aljazeera.com