On July 1, Vietnam's first Population Law took effect, introducing measures to encourage couples to have more children as the country faces a rapidly aging population.
Women in selected groups will receive a minimum childbirth subsidy of about €66 ($75). Female employees giving birth to a second child now get seven months of maternity leave, up from six, while paternity leave for fathers whose wives have a second child has doubled to 10 working days.
Subsidies for prenatal and newborn screening will initially target select groups before expanding nationwide in January. Families with at least two biological children may also receive priority access to social housing.
The law follows Vietnam's decision last year to scrap its longstanding two-child policy. However, reversing demographic trends is challenging: Vietnam's fertility rate hit a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
By 2050, the share of Vietnam's working-age population (15-64) is projected to fall from 68.6% to 63%, while those aged 65 and over will rise from 8.4% to 21.2%, according to the UN.
A key concern is that Vietnam is growing old before becoming wealthy. GDP per capita was about $5,000 last year, significantly lower than levels in Japan, South Korea and Singapore at similar stages of aging.
"If countries age before becoming rich, economic growth may slow, while income inequality and pressure on healthcare and social support systems may increase," Bussarawan Teerawichitchainan, associate professor at the National University of Singapore, told DW.
Across Southeast Asia, falling fertility and longer life expectancy are reshaping societies. In Singapore, those aged 60+ outnumbered children under 15 around 2010; Thailand reached that point in the mid-2010s; Vietnam is projected to follow by 2035.
Thailand's experience shows that higher income does not eliminate challenges. Its welfare system and labor market are already adjusting to a shrinking workforce and growing elderly population.
Migration can ease labor shortages, but Vietnam has a very small immigrant population and shows little inclination to rely on large-scale inward migration.
Analysts argue governments should rethink the conversation. "Fertility has continued to decline despite these efforts, suggesting that low fertility is driven by broader structural changes that cannot be reversed through pronatalist policies alone," said Wiraporn Pothisiri of Chulalongkorn University.
Singapore combines fertility incentives with active aging policies, workforce retraining, and differentiated immigration channels, serving as a model.
"Everybody wants to live longer. Yes, there are challenges, but we should not forget that it is a celebration," said Aris Ananta, professor at Universitas Indonesia, advocating for "active and healthy aging" and redefining old age to start at 70 or 75.
Source: www.dw.com