Uzbekistan's total external debt reached $84.1 billion as of July 1, 2026. A year earlier, the figure stood at $72.2 billion. Over the year, external debt increased by $11.9 billion, or 16.5%, according to a Central Bank report.
The bulk of the growth occurred in the second half of 2025. Since the beginning of the current year, external debt has increased from $82.2 billion on January 1 by approximately $1.9 billion, or 2.3%. State external debt grew from $36.8 billion to $41.7 billion over the year, or by 13.3%. Corporate external debt increased from $35.4 billion to $42.4 billion, or by 19.8%. Since the start of the year, these figures have risen by about $1.2 billion and $700 million, respectively.
The Central Bank clarifies that corporate external debt includes external borrowings by the private sector, including business entities, attracted without government guarantees. There are no state obligations on corporate external debt; payments are made from the own funds of economic entities and banks. The state external debt balance includes accrued but unpaid interest. Additionally, the value of sovereign international bonds is recalculated based on market prices at the reporting date.
Economist Mirkomil Kholboev noted that despite the rapid growth in the nominal volume of gross external debt, its share relative to income is shrinking. According to his calculations, as of the second quarter, the ratio of total external debt to GDP was 48.5%, down 4.4 percentage points from the first quarter. The ratio of total external debt to GDP peaked at 55.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Since then, it has been declining for two consecutive quarters. Since the fourth quarter of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen by 7.4 percentage points.
Kholboev attributes this dynamic to the dollar-denominated economy growing faster than external debt. At the end of the second quarter, real GDP grew by 8.5%, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The strengthening of the soum was an additional factor. According to the economist's calculations, the average dollar exchange rate used to calculate GDP in dollars strengthened by 5% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This naturally accelerates GDP growth in dollar terms. Kholboev used the economic volume for the last four quarters and the average exchange rate for that period for his calculation.
According to his estimates, if current GDP growth rates are maintained and the average exchange rate remains unchanged, at the current borrowing pace, the gross external debt could fall to 45% of GDP by the second quarter of 2027. "In general, no matter how high the nominal debt growth and current situation may look, for now our incomes are growing faster than debt. This, in turn, leads to a reduction in the debt burden," the economist said. The Central Bank, in its commentary, also cited the International Monetary Fund's assessment, according to which Uzbekistan's debt burden remains low, and a significant portion of external debt was attracted on concessional terms.
Source: www.gazeta.uz